期: 3
页: 215-244
出版年: 2015
出版商CENTER SOCIOLOGICAL RESEARCH, VUL KONOVALTSYA 10-49, TERNOPIL, 46000, UKRAINE
ISSN: 2071-789X
eISSN: 2306-3459
研究领域Business & Economics
摘要
Turkey is a geographically diverse country and two important components of that diversity is demographic and the level of education. Regions of the country vary markedly in the age structure of the population and even more conspicuously in such characteristics as fertility, mortality, and migration and the level of educational attainment. The purpose of this study is mainly to explore the effect of various demographic and education scenarios on the size and the structure of the population in five selected provinces that are representative of four fertility regions of Turkey. Three scenarios were defined namely: "Euro" in which Turkey joins European Union, "Medium" as a continuation of trend, and "Three Children" in which Turkey becomes more conservative. We defined set of assumptions for fertility, mortality, migration, and education and these assumptions were implemented in a multi-state population projection model to project the population by age, sex and educational attainment in five selected provinces from 2010 to 2050. Under all scenarios, population in the five provinces will grow between 2010 and 2050. Under Euro and Medium scenario, the population of children will diminish and the population of elderly and those in the age-group 15-64 will increase in all scenarios. In terms of education, as expected a rapid transformation will take place under Euro scenarios with more homogenous and higher level of human capital across Turkey, whereas, under the Three Children scenario, Turkey will continue to be a heterogeneous society with a lower level of human capital.
关键词
作者信息
通讯作者地址: Yucesahin, MM (通讯作者)
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Ankara Univ, Dept Geog, Fac Languages & Hist Geog, TR-06100 Ankara, Turkey.
增强组织信息的名称
Ankara University
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地址:
出版商
CENTER SOCIOLOGICAL RESEARCH, VUL KONOVALTSYA 10-49, TERNOPIL, 46000, UKRAINE
类别 / 分类
研究方向:Business & Economics
Web of Science 类别:Economics
文献信息
文献类型:Article
语种:English
入藏号: WOS:000365684600016
ISSN: 2071-789X
eISSN: 2306-3459
其他信息
IDS 号: CX4QE
Web of Science 核心合集中的 "引用的参考文献": 60
Web of Science 核心合集中的 "被引频次": 0
