2024年第34讲总第847讲 （ADRI Seminar Series 2024）

题目：Climate Change and an Aging Society: Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Heatstroke Deaths in Japan 1972-2022（气候变化与老龄化社会：1972-2022 年日本中暑死亡的时空分析）

地点：社会学院516

时间：2024年9月20日9:00-11:30

主持人：Prof. Leiwen Jiang （蒋耒文教授）

主讲人：Prof. Kaoru Kakinuma is a Guest Scientist at National Institute of Population and Social Security Research in Japan. She is a researcher specializing in Sustainability Science, with a focus on the interactions between population dynamics and environmental changes, especially climate change impacts on migration, inequality, and public health. Previously, she served as an Associate Professor at the Asian Demographic Research Institute of Shanghai University and a Research Scientist at King Abdullah University of Science and Technology in Saudi Arabia. She was a JSPS (Japan Society for the Promotion of Science) research fellow and a visiting scholar at both Columbia University and the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies. She completed her PhD from the Graduate School of Agriculture and Life Science at The University of Tokyo.

Kaoru Kakinuma 是日本国立社会保障与人口问题研究所的客座科学家。她是一名专门从事可持续发展科学的研究员，专注于人口动态与环境变化之间的相互作用，特别是气候变化对移民、不平等和公共卫生的影响。此前，她曾担任上海大学亚洲人口研究所副教授和沙特阿拉伯阿卜杜拉国王科技大学研究科学家。她曾是日本学术振兴会 (JSPS) 研究员，也是哥伦比亚大学和美国宇航局戈达德太空研究所的访问学者。她在东京大学农业与生命科学研究生院获得博士学位。

内容简介：As climate change leads to an increase in heatwaves, heatstroke deaths are becoming more frequent and have been shown to surpass fatalities from other natural disasters. This issue would be compounded by an aging society, as older populations are particularly vulnerable to heatwaves. However, research on heatstroke mortality remains limited due to the challenge of accurately identifying deaths directly caused by heatstroke. Most studies focus on overall mortality related to rising temperatures, making it crucial to specifically assess heatstroke deaths in preparation for future climate and demographic risks. In Japan, long-term municipal-level mortality data from 1972 to 2022 allows for the detailed examination of deaths directly attributed to heatstroke. This presentation will analyze the spatio-temporal patterns of heatstroke mortality using this rich dataset. Additionally, it will explain how causes of death are recorded and compiled in official statistics, contributing to comparative research between Japan and China.

随着气候变化导致热浪增多，中暑死亡人数变得越来越频繁，而且已证明超过了其他自然灾害造成的死亡人数。老龄化社会将加剧这一问题，因为老年人口特别容易受到热浪的伤害。然而，由于准确识别直接由中暑引起的死亡人数是一项挑战，因此对中暑死亡率的研究仍然有限。大多数研究都集中在与气温升高相关的总体死亡率上，因此，专门评估中暑死亡人数对于应对未来的气候和人口风险至关重要。在日本，1972 年至 2022 年的长期市级死亡率数据可用于详细检查直接归因于中暑的死亡人数。本演讲将使用这一丰富的数据集分析中暑死亡的时空模式。此外，它将解释官方统计数据中如何记录和汇编死亡原因，为日本和中国的比较研究做出贡献。