题目：气候与社会经济变化对全球土地利用的影响

 

主讲人：任晓琳

美国国家大气研究中心研究科学家

 

主持人：蒋耒文

亚洲人口研究中心主任；美国国家大气研究中心研究科学家

 

主办单位：上海大学亚洲人口研究中心暨人口研究所

 

合办单位：上海研究院城市社会治理研究中心

 

讲座时间：2016年6月28日星期二, 11：00-12:00

 

讲座地点：上海大学延长校区北大楼207

 

讲座简介：

Regional crop yields are vulnerable to climate change but also sensitive to local economic status. We assess the global impacts of climate change and socioeconomic development pathways on agricultural systems under two climate projections (RCP8.5 and RCP4.5) and two different socioeconomic pathways (SSP3 and SSP5) in order to quantify the differences in impacts of climate and the underlying socioeconomic conditions. The integrated Population-Economy-Technology-Science (iPETS) model, a global integrated assessment model for projecting future energy use, land use and emissions, is used in conjunction a griddedland surface model (CLM)to evaluate climate change and socioeconomic impacts on agriculture production and global land use. We employ climate impacts on crop yield derived from CLM, driven by CESM simulations of the two RCPs. These yield effects are applied within iPETS, imposed on baseline and mitigation scenarios for SSP3 and SSP5 that are consistent with the RCPs. We find that the reduced level of warming in RCP4.5 (relative to RCP8.5) can have either positive or negative effects on the economy since crop yield either increases or decreases with climate change depending on assumptions about CO2 fertilization. We also find that in the mitigation scenarios, crop prices are substantially affected by mitigation actions as well as by climate impacts. For the scenarios we evaluated, the development pathway (SSP3 vs SSP5) has a larger impact on outcomes than climate (RCP4.5 vs RCP8.5), by a factor of 3 for crop prices, 11 for total cropland use, and 21 for GDP on global average.

地区的农业产量在气候变化及当地经济状态下是脆弱而敏感的。在此情况下，为了量化气候变化以及潜在社会经济条件的影响，我们模拟了两种气候预测及两种不同的社会途径，评估了气候变化及社会经济发展途径对农业系统的影响。我们发现，全球变暖在RCP4.5水平下 降低（相对于RCP8.5）对经济有正面的影响也有负面的影响，因为粮食产量随着气候变化有增有减，主要取决于二氧化碳施肥效应。我们还发现，在减排构想下，作物价格持续被减排行为以及气候变化影响着。从我们的结果来看，社会发展途径（ssp3 VS ssp5）对农业系统地影响比气候变化的影响大（RCP4.5和RCP8.5）。总结而言，对农业系统影响最小的是粮食价格，其次是农田总利用度，影响最大的是全球平均GDP。

 

主讲人简介：

Xiaolin Ren is a Project Scientist in the Integrated Assessment Modeling group within the Climate & Global Dynamics Division at NCAR. After she got her Master's degree in Environmental Engineering, she started to pursue her PhD in environmental economics. During her PhD training, she had worked on several projects, including optimal strategy design, survey data analysis, survey design, new product market share prediction, and policy evaluation. After years of study, her interests have converged on the interaction between climate change and economic development.

Currently at NCAR, she is working with the PET model, the socio-economic model in the integrated assessment model, to evaluate the relationship between economic development and greenhouse gas emissions. The current focus of her research is climate impact analyses on agriculture and the economy.

 

 

联系人：徐芬芳
联系电话：021-66135205
电子邮件：xufenfang2008@163.com
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上海大学社会学院
School of Sociology and Political Science，Shanghai University