上海大学社会学院系列讲座
2016年第29讲总第435讲
主题：气候变化对墨西哥-美国移民的影响
The Role of Climate Change on Mexico-US Migration
主讲人：Fernando Riosmena
科罗拉多大学博尔德分校人口与地理学副教授
主持人：蒋耒文
亚洲人口研究中心主任；美国国家大气研究中心科学家
主办单位：上海大学亚洲人口研究中心暨人口研究所
合办单位：上海研究院城市社会治理研究中心
讲座时间：2016年6月22日星期三, 10:00-11:30am
讲座地点：上海大学延长校区北大楼308
讲座简介：
Climate change is expected to continue increasing average temperatures and rainfall variability, especially in semi-arid landscapes. Much of rural Mexico is heavily dependent on rainfall and indeed semi-arid, thus prone to drought, while also having a history of significant internal and international outmigration. Presenting a summary of results from several research projects, I reflect on how much Mexico-US migration is associated with drought while also considering rapid structural changes affecting the Mexican countryside over the past several decades. These results show that rainfall variability is a minor factor, but one which predicts international migration under specific conditions related to the intensity of environmental events, a household's/place's/region's history of migration, and land use/irrigation practices. I argue that including the confluence of climate and political and economic factors more explicitly can improve migration theories and related empirical work, and help better shape agrarian and social development policies (e.g., types of support in rural areas in the fact of future structural and climate change), and immigration policy (e.g., considering when climate does drive international movement).
气候变化导致气温及降雨的不稳定，尤其影响半干旱地区的地型地貌。墨西哥农村主要属于半干旱地区，生产和生活严重依赖降水，存在大量国内人口流动和国际人口迁出的历史。本讲座将总结多项相关研究的成果，分析过去几十年墨西哥向美国的人口迁移与干旱的关系，以及墨西哥乡村快速结构变迁所发挥的作用。研究结果显示，降水量的变化对墨西哥-美国的人口迁移直接影响很小，更主要的是受到环境事件的强度、区域-村落-家庭流动历史、以及土地使用和灌溉条件的影响。只有明确考虑了气候、政治、经济因素的影响，才能改进人口迁移理论和相关实证研究，并更好地制定农业和社会发展政策，为农村在未来结构和气候变化的条件下提供支持，并在制定人口迁移政策方面考虑气候变化因素的影响。
主讲人简介：
Fernando Riosmena is Associate Professor in the Population Program and Geography Department at the University of Colorado at Boulder, where he is also faculty associate in the Center for Latin American Studies and holds a courtesy faculty appointment in Sociology. His research and scholarship look at the role of US policies and practices as well as social, economic, and environmental conditions in sending communities on the migration dynamics between Latin America and the United States. Riosmena has published this work in outlets such as International Migration Review, Global Environmental Change, and the Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Sciences.. He has also participated in advisory and consulting bodies for US and Mexican governments, including a group of the US Academy of Sciences studying the measurement and extent of undocumented migration.
